Spain is a horrible bet, they always choke.
You are right and Spain past record support it as well
European Championships record<TABLE class=wikitable style="TEXT-ALIGN: center"><TBODY><TR><TH>Year</TH><TH>Round</TH><TH>GP</TH><TH>W</TH><TH>D*</TH><TH>L</TH><TH>GS</TH><TH>GA</TH></TR><TR><TD>
1960</TD><TD>
Did not Qualify</TD><TD>-</TD><TD>-</TD><TD>-</TD><TD>-</TD><TD>-</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR bgColor=gold><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: red 3px solid; BORDER-TOP: red 3px solid; BORDER-LEFT: red 3px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: red 3px solid">
1964</TD><TD>
Champions</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>11</TD><TD>3</TD></TR><TR><TD>
1968</TD><TD>
Did not Qualify</TD><TD>-</TD><TD>-</TD><TD>-</TD><TD>-</TD><TD>-</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR><TD>
1972</TD><TD>
Did not Qualify</TD><TD>-</TD><TD>-</TD><TD>-</TD><TD>-</TD><TD>-</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR><TD>
1976</TD><TD>
Did not Qualify</TD><TD>-</TD><TD>-</TD><TD>-</TD><TD>-</TD><TD>-</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR><TD>
1980</TD><TD>Round 1</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>4</TD></TR><TR bgColor=silver><TD>
1984</TD><TD>Runners-up</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>5</TD></TR><TR><TD>
1988</TD><TD>Round 1</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>5</TD></TR><TR><TD>
1992</TD><TD>
Did not Qualify</TD><TD>-</TD><TD>-</TD><TD>-</TD><TD>-</TD><TD>-</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR><TD>
1996</TD><TD>Quarter-final</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>3</TD></TR><TR><TD>
2000</TD><TD>Quarter-final</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>7</TD></TR><TR><TD>
2004</TD><TD>Round 1</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR><TD>
2008</TD><TD>Qualified</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD><TD></TD><TD></TD><TD></TD><TD></TD></TR><TR><TD>
Total</TD><TD>8/13</TD><TD>30</TD><TD>10</TD><TD>9</TD><TD>11</TD><TD>31</TD><TD>32</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
But then there is always 1st time even tho they did win once the title
and somehow i believe if their scorers are all fit this time they will reach the quarter and possibily semi too.